Archive for Fourth Way Society Foundations, Humanities and Principles

Why the placebo is not a null variable – Implications for studying wellbeing

Many people hear me speak of the virtues of the hypothetico-deductive model of refuting hypotheses. I see a ‘two-tailed’ use of this as the most appropriate way to refute claims where there are polarised views.

The ones I talk about the most are with anomalistic and unexplained phenomena, such as whether a god exists, which takes this form:

  • Null Hypothesis: There is no evidence to test whether or not a god exists
  • Alternative hypothesis 1: There is significant evidence to prove a god does not exist
  • Alternative hypothesis 2: There is significant evidence to prove a god does exist

At the moment I think science can only prove the null, and one can’t seriously count scientific consensus as significant evidence.

I would argue that equally, this hypothetico-deductive model should be used in the testing of medicines, including ones with no medicinal properties like homeopathy.

Unlike many scientists, I don’t think the placebo is the null hypothesis, but an alternative one.

If you give someone a sugar pill (i.e. a type of placebo) it still has an effect on them psychologically and can thus affect their wellbeing. I have often wondered whether if someone thinks they are drinking caffeinated tea, whether the mind makes the body consume more of it, knowing it will be getting more supply of it, even if it doesn’t in reality. How else can one explain the sudden rush of alertness one gets from just sipping Red Bull?

So, for instance,  in studies trying to show whether or not homeopathy has efficacy for treating a condition one would need to do the following:

  1. Monitor the outcomes of people receiving no treatment
  2. Monitor the outcomes of people consuming the homeopathic pill
  3. Monitor the outcomes of people consuming a placebo

I would argue that it is only where there is no significant difference between ALL of these but a significant similarity that one should assume that the ‘alternative medicine’ being studied does not have efficacy in improving the wellbeing of the user. As the Hawthorne Studies suggest, just receiving individual time and attention can improve wellbeing. So, in my view, the only time alternative medicine can be ruled out as a treatment for untreatable conditions is when they are no better at improving wellbeing as no treatment whatsoever.

 

The glorification of class struggles perpetuates it

Popular self-confessed 12-year-old lookalike Owen Jones posted this tweet to Twitter:

“The General Strike has taught the working class more in four days than years of talking could have done.”- Tory Arthur Balfour

I replied to this, criticising him for glorifying class conflict, and he replied:

@jonathan_bishop To get rid of those divisions we have to understand the ones that currently exist, rather than pretend they’re not there

I think he is right that we should understand the ones that exist, and many of them are perpetuated by many associated with the Labour Party calling entrepreurs who want to do something with their life, or any public service funded by tax-payers income and not their taxes “posh”.

It seems from Labour politicans point of view, anyone who has any amount of wealth, even if they earned it from the fruits of their own Labour are “posh” and being posh is bad. One thing one can take from this is, working class voters, are not posh, and therefore as Labour aren’t posh, then if one is working class one should vote Labour.

How does one define working class? Is it someone who works hard but earns below the national average? Is it someone who is a member of a trade union who has no choice but to work in order to live?

If it was the first one, then as a risk taking entrepreneur I meet that definition. In terms of the second, well I could not maintain my existence without working, but how does one define ‘trade union’?

For me being working class has little to do with income and more to do with division of labour and control over one’s working life. I would say one is working class where:

  • One works for an employer for income and has little freedom over the work they do and the direction it takes.
  • One cannot vary one’s asking price for work as one’s paymasters has one tied down to a restrictive contract of employment
  • One cannot easily withdraw one’s labour without risking breach of contract and losing one’s income stream
  • One cannot send someone else to do one’s work if one is ill, meaning one could lose one’s income for the day one is not at work
  • One has to work a set amount of hours in order to get by and often relies on overtime to make ends meet.
  • One can be moved from a task one is enjoying doing without any say-so if that is what one’s paymaster wants

Trade unions depend on the working class, as if there were not people under the restrictive conditions above, they would have no purpose. I am self-employed, and probably take home less money that most workers in those jobs above. However, I don’t see myself as working class, for one because none of the above apply to me, and also because I:

  • Enjoy the fruits of my own labour – the profit made from the work I do goes to me
  • I control my own means of production – I can do whatever work I think profitable, at present writing and speaking, and I can vary how much I do and when I do it
  • I control my own means of distribution – I can sell my products and services to whoever I want who also want it. I can distribute it via any printer/publisher, I can choose my own supply chain, engage my own marketers, etc.
  • I control my own means of exchange – I can decide to only write for people who pay me certain royalties, or I can choose to barter, by providing a person with a good or service in exchange for theirs, or even using what I call ‘co-operative advantage’ which is where I work with others pro-bono in the hope of future profits from what we co-produce

Ask yourself this. If everyone, like me, was self-employed and a member of a profession body that gave similar rights to traditional trade unions, then who would join these traditional trade unions? Equally, if every worker was emancipated through self-employment, accountable only to themselves and not being supressed by an employer or trade union, and therefore not working class, then who would vote Labour?

While Labour and The Sun are the guardians of the working class, and the Tories and certain broadsheets are the guardians of the business owners the class system in this country will continue to perpetuate. It is only by breaking past these divides and people taking control of their own working life, perhaps through self-employment, that the suppression of the working classes can end, as they would cease to be working class and start being the individuals they are.

Lots of Laughs about Noob LOLlers on Twitter – Cameron’s still cool

There are people across the country acting so smug that they know something the Prime Minister doesn’t know. The BBC reports on what the Twitterverse is calling ‘lolgate’, which is the apparent revelation that David Cameron needed to be told that LOL does not mean ‘lots of love’ as he and other older generations would like it to, but in fact means ‘laugh at loud’ according to younger generations. Well I am laughing out loud at them. Most of these people, young and old, are still growing their cyberpubes as Noobs (newbies) who never used the Internet before the start of the century.

The Internet dictionary NetLingo (www.netlingo.com), which has existed since the early 1990s, when I started using the Internet, makes it clear that there is more than one meaning for LOL. They say LOL can mean the common ‘laugh out loud’, ‘lots of laughs’ as well as ‘lots of love’.

In fact, my first use of LOL back then was ‘lots of laughs’. However, I and a small number of other Internet users resented the use of LOL to reflect one’s joy, as we feel it devalues ‘emoticons’. The emoticon ‘:-D’ means the same as ‘laugh out loud’ and, in fact, many Internet chat platforms will using the same computer graphic for ‘LOL;’ as ‘:-D’

So for anyone who thought they were ‘cool’ or ‘hip’ for thinking they knew the meaning of LOL or indeed that David Cameron was “out of touch” for not sharing their meaning, I think the last laugh-out-loud is on you. To Internet scholars like myself I am glad he is not going with the crowd, who are still novices on the Internet who lack the depth of exposure to Internet culture of veterans despite how clever they feel.

Whenever I get the opportunity now, I’m going to write that LOL has different meanings to different generations. To older Noobs it means ‘lots of love’ and to younger Noobs it means ‘laugh out loud’.

The tip of the iceberg is that John Prescott, as reported in that BBC article, wants a freedom of information request to access David Cameron’s text messages. Would he be happy for all the recorded minutes of his cabinet meetings to be made public? I doubt it. So I sent him this tweet below:

WTF Doesn’t @johnprescott have a life? http://t.co/baJnwjhA IMHO he should ALTG There is life beyond politics. FFS JAD for him it seems! :o )

He has not responded, I guess he is not as with it as he thought, as there is so much to learn beyond LOL. Maybe he could buy a paper copy of Netlingo to look them up with in a more familiar format.

The demonisation of people who use the word ‘Chav’

When most people think of the word Chav they think of someone on benefits with a distinct appearance of what one who is poor and whose common ancestors were working class and did not have much mobility outside of their locality.

For me however, the term reflects a socio-economic cultural group, that should not be looked down upon. Characteristics of this group for me include:

  • Aspiration – Despite living in an environment where their income is not as high as they need it to be, they are driven to want to be successful and would be if they had the opportunity
  • Delusion – Because they are being denied the opportunity to be successful, Chavs adopt a way of life which is an exaggeration of those typical of those in the upper classes or simply wealthy celebrities

From this, one can easily identify the stereotypical Chav – the person who wears a baseball cap like a sportsman, has lots of jewellery like a rap star, and always has designer clothes and the latest gadgets.

Unlike Owen Jones, I don’t think the word ‘Chav’ applies exclusively to the working class. I know of people who are Middle Class who act ‘posh’ by adopting the lifestyle people of more upper classes would find normal. These people will look down on other Middle Class people as less worthy, if they do not dress or sound pukka for instance.

I once made an app for Facebook using these stereotypes called ‘Are you Chav Labour?’. For each of the other options, people were given a negative description, like ‘pacifist’ for the apathetic and ‘stooge’ for the loyalist. Only those who were ‘Chavs’ had a positive description. I wrote this app long before Owen Jones came on the scene making out the term ‘Chav’ was one solely to abuse and “demonise” the working class.

I use this word no differently to the way others use NEET, or any other socio-economic term. I feel ‘demonised’ by Owen Jones for wanting to use this term, and regularly tweet him to make this fact known. A Chav for me, as someone who is an egalitarian who believes in the eradication of the class system will always be:

Someone who is denied opportunity or income that they would be able to manage if it were not of the barriers placed on them by the financial system imposed on the community they are in, and whom deal with this through acting out grandiose stereotypes of the socio-economic group they would rather be in.

This applies therefore to all classes and not just the working class. So I should be allowed to use the term Chav in a sympathetic way without being told I am being unfair to the working classes, as I think being a Chav is less about lack of money and more about a lifestyle of imitating those with the economic status one desires but ‘knows’ one can never have.

How I make policy – the Fourth Way

Many people ask what I mean when I refer to the ‘fourth way to politics in the information age’. It is quite simple, can can result in many win-win situations where everyone gets what they want, even if does not look like anything they originally had in mind.

If one thinks of most issues – they are polarised. There is one position and then an opposite which people hold and argue vehemently. These are the first and second ways. The third way is a bad compromise which gives no one want they want, just a ‘half-way house’ nothing like the real thing. The fourth way on the other hand, takes the best of the first, the best of the second, and proves the third way to be flawed.

An example I will use is that of the constitution of the United Kingdom. At present we have a monarchy and the different British nations are all part of the same state and not independent. In terms of the three ways, they look like this:

  • Wales – first way: Part of England; second way: independent; third way: devolution
  • UK Monarchy – first way: Absolute monarchy; second way: republic; third way: constitutional monarchy

One can see that in the UK at the moment we have the third way on both these issues. My fourth ways (others are possible) are these:

  • Wales: Wales is independently constituted as a nation state, but is also part of a ‘British Isles Customs Union’ and the European Union. This means Wales is both independent and part of ‘the Union’ at the same time.
  • The Monarchy: The Royal Family exists as a tourist attraction but they are not part of the state – in the same way Mickey Mouse is a tourist attraction in Florida but not part of their government.  The monarchy is replaced with a president, who is not all powerful like in a republic, but is appointed on a rotational basis by picking the premier from the different nations that are part of BICU – England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland.

Does Labour councillor for Tonteg Jean Hutchinson realise how silly she sounds?

A newly elected Labour councillor for Tonteg, Jean Hutchinson, told me today that the party that my best friend Mark Beech and I set up, The Pluralist Party has no right to call itself democratic because it only has two members. Jean Hutchinson also said that our co-operative, Glamorgan Blended Learning Ltd, which only has four members, can’t be considered significant either.

The thing Labour councillor for Tonteg, Jean Hutchinson needs to realise is it is action on the ground that counts. Jean Hutchinson’s Labour Party can have as many members and councillors that it wants – My grandfather was offered a co-option onto Llantrisant Town Council. As you can see here, he said he wouldn’t sit with those (persons) if they were the last people on earth. If Labour councillor Jean Hutchinson is anything to go by I don’t blame him. She used to be a nice person until she became a Labour councillor. It seems that all women who sit among the persons in the Labour Group on Llantwit Fardre Community Council, who I consider chauvinist bigots, don’t keep their pleasant zeal for that long.

My firm, Glamorgan Blended Learning Ltd, while only having 4 members, has engaged over ten people in the last three years, who have worked on various projects. The artist, who worked on our underpass project in Treforest, is now a senior art teacher at Hawthorn High School. One of our former directors is now on the board of a Plc. And as you can see here, I have gone from being an employee to being a director of three limited companies. Everyone who has worked for GBL has gone on to make a difference elsewhere.

Being someone who listens to Richard Branson’s CD’s I’m convinced small is beautiful. The Virgin Empire is made up of lots of small firms each run by their own managing director. Richard Branson knows from complete experience, what I know from experience and academia, which is that the closer the most senior people who direct the use of the business revenue are to the workers who receive it, the more successful a business will be. I knew this at 15, when a business as part of a school project failed because not everyone was a shareholder and thus weren’t motivated to work for the business. I became a believer in co-operativism when I was 15 by experience, unlike the many members of Labour’s sister party The Co-operative Party who are there in Labour MP Owen Smith’s words for ‘CV points’. I unfortunately agree with him, and their lack of commitment to the co-operative movement was no more apparent than when they expelled me from the party for co-operating with other co-operators who happened to be members of Plaid Cymru. I had co-operated with these persons, who direct the Plaid Cymru Credit Union, in my capacity as director of GBL, yet because I worked with them on Pontypridd Town Council, a body the Labour Party don’t recognise, I was in the wrong in the Co-op Party’s eyes because I should have only co-operated with Labour Party members who did not support co-operativism.

So, can Labour councillor for Tonteg Jean Hutchinson tell me what she has done the last few years as a member of the Pontypridd Labour Party which at most has 600 members? I’m sure it is a lot less that what Mark and I have achieved through our firm, by bringing people together for ad hoc projects, without the inefficient permanent staffing structure other organisations have which reduces what they can give for each pound of turnover they have.

What should Labour’s Clause IV actually say?

Every British political scholar has spoken about the ‘Clause 4 Moment’ in the Labour Party – the point at which Tony Blair changed the Labour Party’s fortunes around by removing the Regressive Clause IV that wedding them to nationalisation, and created a new one, the Progressive Clause IV. I write here about how that had the same effect on me of convincing me the Labour Party was now ready to use Labour values in a 21st century context.

At the election account on Friday, even the Labour MP Owen Smith said he doesn’t believe in the Progressive Clause 4 – hardly anyone in the Labour Party does. This is even more frustrating that I felt I had to leave when on paper I was a member of a party whose progressive vision of pro-business, pro-opportunity, pro-market, pro-freedom I identified with as someone from a family of three generations of entrepreneurs.

Maybe if the people in the Labour Party were to be completely truthful about what they see the Labour Party as existing to do, then Clause IV would look something like this (deleted parts marked, added parts bold):

The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more electoral wins than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many not the a few Labour Party members; where the rights we enjoy are disproportionate to reflect the duties we owe and where we live together freely, in a spirit of solidarity, without tolerance and or respect for people who aren’t Labour.

Why the country is in the mess it is in – and why NatWest are part of the problem

I am having trouble differentiating all my passwords for all my different financial service providers. So I was looking to consolidate. I have a Mastercard with Barclaycard and looked into transferring it to NatWest who I have a student account with.

I enquired at NatWest prior to applying, because I didn’t want a mark against my credit report – I have the highest possible score of 999. NatWest asked me if I was in a job with a £10,000 and over 18. I said no to the first and yes to the second. They said I could have a card with a £500 limit – My business soften spends more than that a week on purchases let alone the month period they were offering!

NatWest said I could only have the package I have with Barclaycard if I was in a job earning £10,000. There are lots of people with credit ratings of around 700 who are in employment at risk of redundancy who would be eligible for this card but in the case of me – someone with the highest rating of 999 – I wouldn’t be able to get it!

This is why the country is in the mess it is in. Someone working in the construction industry earning £10,000 year with a credit rating of 700 is seek preferable to someone like me who is a self-employed writer and research and developer like me with a surplus of less than a quarter that with a credit rating of 999 and therefore less risk is told not to apply because banks like NatWest have terms for their cards which don’t recognise this. Also, because I am self-employed and company director with a many high value transactions going on these cards for both my firms and me, then NatWest will make more money with me than the person earning £10,000 through higher commission on sales.

The banks have learned nothing since 2008.  Like NatWest they are just not up to the job of knowing the difference between low risk and high profit customers to high risk low profit customers. NatWest and the others are not going to make any money giving credit cards to people who won’t pay them back however much interest is added to that high risk customer’s balance. The sooner they start understanding risk the better decisions banks like NatWest will make.

Strange name calling

As a former IT professional in the construction industry I was shocked to read Steve Rotheram MP’s comments in the Western Mail (Coffeebreak Quotes of the Day, April 25).

Mr Rotheram said: “Having worked on building sites, believe me, some of the strangest characters I have ever met in my life are in Parliament. It’s a very strange place.”

Is Mr Rotheram trying to suggest that people on building sites are strange? The construction industry has been the backbone of Wales, providing the many jobs and facilities needed in Wales. Mr Rotheram’s apparent contempt for the construction industry is shared by his newly found Labour colleagues at Westminster.

In 2007 the Labour Government proved it was under the thumb of the trade unions by forcing most sub-contractors to become employees. This meant that during the downturn from 2008 they had to be made redundant because there was not enough work and equally as they had lost their status as sub-contractor they couldn’t easily work for someone else, as they could prior to 2007.

Mr Rotheram has been campaigning for new internet trolling laws. Would he expect these to be used on people calling others “strange” online, or “deranged” as he has on Twitter?

Public and Media Relations Policy

I have adopted the following policy for use by people who wish to contact me. I get enquiries from the media, researchers and/or students every day, particularly on Internet trolling and Internet addiction, so this policy should help people who wish to contact me to understand the ways in which I am able to help them most effectively.

Information

If you need someone to find some information or other thing for you about a topic I am knowledgeable in then I am unlikely to want to be contacted and help with your enquiries without a give-and-take relationship, which I’m sure you’ll think is fair. I am happy to give you good leads, pointers to and sources of information to help build your research or article. I think it is only fair if I use my time to help you with your work that you present me as a good person and:

  • Give me airtime, such as being interviewed in a radio debate or have a vox-pop recorded for a programme, as ITV kindly did here;
  • Give me column inches, such as quoting me in your news article or op-ed; and/or
  • Otherwise mention me or quote me in the media format you work with.

I am very happy to provide guidance to students who are completing assignments at present, to ensure they get off to a good start in life, and I can often make the time to help other researchers to. All I ask is that they stick to topics where I have clear expertise and cite the work of mine to avoid plagiarism. If allowable I’d like them to put their assignment or research online for Google Scholar to index. My peer-reviewed work that I’d am keen to speak about and be cited on can be found in the publications section.

If you are someone with a problem relating to trolling or other Internet abuse and need advice, please visit my Trolling Academy website.

Please do not contact me to:

  • Ask for the details of one of my competitors who you would prefer interview over me;
  • Ask for information or that you do not intend to credit me for such as through quotes and/or interviews;
  • Ask for me to recommend any product or service, unless it is possible via my advice and contracting services at The Trolling Academy, The Selivcel Project and The VECC Project; or
  • Ask for me to give you any preferential treatment in any organisation I am involved with.

Speaking engagements

I am always willing to help others access my work, and take part in public speaking engagements, including keynote speeches – A full list is here. If you have something you think I would be interested in speaking at, please send email to speaking@ suffixed with the domain above. Please provide details of the event, projected audience size and profile, location and date. Please use an email subject line with relevant information such as: “Keynote in London, 30 November 2011 at Online Information 2011” including the date and place proposed.

AV/Internet Requirements

I regularly use PowerPoint presentations my speeches and where appropriate video and audio for added effect. I am keen on audience involved, particularly at venues that use Twitter so I have to “think on my feet.” I always like to be speaking at events were the audience can ask questions.