Many people hear me speak of the virtues of the hypothetico-deductive model of refuting hypotheses. I see a ‘two-tailed’ use of this as the most appropriate way to refute claims where there are polarised views.
The ones I talk about the most are with anomalistic and unexplained phenomena, such as whether a god exists, which takes this form:
- Null Hypothesis: There is no evidence to test whether or not a god exists
- Alternative hypothesis 1: There is significant evidence to prove a god does not exist
- Alternative hypothesis 2: There is significant evidence to prove a god does exist
At the moment I think science can only prove the null, and one can’t seriously count scientific consensus as significant evidence.
I would argue that equally, this hypothetico-deductive model should be used in the testing of medicines, including ones with no medicinal properties like homeopathy.
Unlike many scientists, I don’t think the placebo is the null hypothesis, but an alternative one.
If you give someone a sugar pill (i.e. a type of placebo) it still has an effect on them psychologically and can thus affect their wellbeing. I have often wondered whether if someone thinks they are drinking caffeinated tea, whether the mind makes the body consume more of it, knowing it will be getting more supply of it, even if it doesn’t in reality. How else can one explain the sudden rush of alertness one gets from just sipping Red Bull?
So, for instance, in studies trying to show whether or not homeopathy has efficacy for treating a condition one would need to do the following:
- Monitor the outcomes of people receiving no treatment
- Monitor the outcomes of people consuming the homeopathic pill
- Monitor the outcomes of people consuming a placebo
I would argue that it is only where there is no significant difference between ALL of these but a significant similarity that one should assume that the ‘alternative medicine’ being studied does not have efficacy in improving the wellbeing of the user. As the Hawthorne Studies suggest, just receiving individual time and attention can improve wellbeing. So, in my view, the only time alternative medicine can be ruled out as a treatment for untreatable conditions is when they are no better at improving wellbeing as no treatment whatsoever.
